Almost two years into the Pandemic facing a further mutated and more infectious virus there is no conclusion on the origin of the virus. There is also a complete lack of interest out of China to allow for a forensic investigation and the consequences of which is that there is now a significant lack of trust in the conclusions out of China or the WHO. Viral explores this topic with much detail and gives the whole history of interaction between scientists in China and their international peers. Furthermore they go through how random individuals trawling through public databases found clues about the genome overlap Covid-19 and bat genomes associated with miner deaths in Yunnan a decade ago. The story is woven together well and the cases are made for both sides with the evidence weighing more heavily, but not with certainty, on a virus accidentally escaping from a lab. It is quite gripping as well as highly concerning.
The book weaves together a dense story starting with the mysterious death of several miners in Mojiang County in 2012. In a bat cave in this county several miners came down with pneumonia and significant health deterioration with unknown origins. Speculations included fungal and viral infections but nothing identified as known disease. The authors give some perspective on the subsequent studying of these cases as masters and doctoral dissertations published on these cases but these remained within Chinese databases and were not the subject of international publication. The mine from which this occurred remains completely closed to any investigation and is not willingly discussed by China. The authors and a large number of scientists believe these cases and that cave are the likely origin of Covid. The caves of Yunnan are filled with species of bats which are the most abundant source of zoonotic viruses. Their large communities and close proximity of living leads to large virus pools that are not suited to humans or other animals but are potentially a few mutations away from being able to jump species. The authors discuss how the study of such bat populations and their viruses was the business of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, run by Dr Shi. A prominent character in the story of Covid. Their team analyzed bat viruses for years and sequenced their findings (though did not share their results and then only partially until internet sleuths found evidence of their existence on the internet). Thus the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) studied and analyzed bat genomes with coronavirus structures for years. Furthermore the institute along with general scientific momentum likely engaged in gain of function research on viruses with the ambition of getting ahead of the next pandemic by putting oneself in the position to understand viral evolution better. This sort of scientific attitude is controversial with both advocates and skeptics able to make strong cases. It is hard to imagine in a country like China their ambitions don't completely dominate any interest in ethics, but of course this is speculative.
The author spend time highlighting how lab leaks happen, giving examples in the Soviet Union as well as the US. They also discuss the level of biosafety labs that have been constructed and the safety protocols around research type and lab type. In this the author's highlight that the safety standards of Chinese labs is questionable, as they often dismissed their western peers who helped build the labs leaving a scarcity of lab technicians trained to use such highly specified equipment. A topic Chinese scientists no doubt would instinctually disagree with, but the examples given are highly concerning though there is no one given the opportunity to rebut them. The authors discuss the level of security in the WIV and its capacity to work on both genome analysis and gain of function research.
The authors spend time giving the reader and understanding of the peculiarities of COVID. The most obvious is that a virus which jumps species is extremely unlikely to be highly infectious. The binding receptors for humans and the original animal host will be different requiring mutations, thus usual first cases are people in extremely close proximity to animals often catch but don't transmit. In the case of COVID its original mutations were few meaning the virus was immediately suited for human transmission. The tracing of the chain of infections led to at best the fish section of the wet-market, which was originally given as the origin. This should now considered to be of negligible probability. The second story pushed by Chinese officials is it was transmitted in frozen food, this too has negligible probability as a scenario and there is no evidence for it either. The authors discuss pangolins and civet cats and how they are vessels for bat viruses rather than a source of virus. So one also gets decent biology lessons throughout. There is a discussion of how the spike protein is so effective and how it is unique to COVID indicating some chance of engineering. This of course would be highly disputed by Chinese policy makers but that is purely their self interest being displayed loudly rather than substantiated with evidence.
The authors weave throughout the story the reality of Chinese authorities and Dr Shi's team not being cooperative. There was late release of genome data, non-existent record keeping of early patient data. Non-sense privacy arguments on sidelining blood analysis of patients in Wuhan in 2019. Overall its pretty shocking how little China has been willingly providing on the origins of Covid but then not so shocking when considering their initial desire to cover up the outbreak. There are so many extremely strange instances of, very close but prior to the outbreak genome data being taken offline and or renamed. Of course there's an excuse for everything but the collage of evidence points to a lack of transparency that projects guilt, whether or not such is the case. If anything confidence on the China narrative on the origin of Covid is now deservedly low, while confidence in the case for a lab leak, accidental as it would have been has risen.
Viral is exciting and a dense collection of evidence on the origins of COVID. It attempts to be even in its analysis giving arguments for each side and claiming at the end the authors have yet to form their own conclusions but the writing suggests otherwise. It suggests the authors believe the evidence is stacked towards a lab leak, but an unintentional one. As a reader one will come to the same conclusion but of course that is partially due to the authors putting together the evidence the way they do and not having the other side respond. That being said scientists on the other side, who really are pursuing science and not agents of the state, like Dr Shi, have refused to respond to their questions forcing the reader to come to the same conclusions as the facts the authors put together take one to inescapable. Unfortunately this is increasingly an instance where China's closed autocratic political instincts don't sit well with the scientists investigating the topic. And whether its instincts that are counterproductive or whether its their need to cover up a mistake has amplified a growth in mistrust that wont just go away. Nor has it led to a stronger introspection for all scientific research done in the name of getting ahead of a problem ignoring the probability of creating a problem, namely gain of function research, were it actually a lab leak. It will take the world a long time to get over this pandemic and the exercise of getting to the bottom of the origin of it at the moment is more anti-cathartic than anything.
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Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19
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Valioso documento.
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